Shipping demand:
Overall situation: Based on the current economic situation, trade situation and past experience, the demand for shipping in December may increase to a certain extent compared with November, but the growth rate may be relatively limited. From the perspective of the global economy, although there are signs of a mild recovery in some regions, there are still many uncertainties as a whole, which will limit the substantial growth in shipping demand to a certain extent.
Regional differences:
European and American routes: Europe and the United States have always been important markets for shipping. In the United States, the economy is expected to achieve a soft landing and people continue to consume, which may bring certain shipping demand, but since the retailers’ demand for replenishing inventory after the previous inventory was cleared has been partially released in the early stage, the demand growth in December may not be particularly obvious. The economic recovery in Europe is relatively slow, and demand growth is expected to be relatively limited.
Intra-Asia and other routes: The economic growth in Asia is relatively fast, especially the trade activities in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia are relatively active. The demand for shipping within Asia and between Asia and other regions may maintain relatively stable growth. For example, the increasing trade between China and ASEAN countries will drive the demand for shipping on related routes.
Shipping prices:
Overall trend: Shipping prices are expected to remain relatively stable in December, but there is also a certain upward pressure. On the one hand, shipping companies have a strong willingness to maintain prices in order to obtain better long-term contract prices; on the other hand, cost factors such as fuel prices and port fees are still high, which provides certain support for freight rates. However, if the volume growth does not meet expectations, freight rates may face certain downward pressure.
Route differences:
Popular routes: Freight rates on popular routes such as Europe and the United States may fluctuate due to capacity adjustments and changes in demand. If demand growth in Europe and the United States is more obvious in December, while capacity growth is relatively limited, freight rates may rise; on the contrary, if demand growth is weak and capacity is relatively sufficient, freight rates may remain stable or slightly decline.
Other routes: Freight rates on some emerging market routes or non-traditional popular routes may be affected by more factors, such as changes in local trade policies and intensified market competition. But overall, the freight rate fluctuations on these routes may be relatively small.
It should be noted that the shipping market is affected by many factors, such as the global economic situation, geopolitics, weather changes, trade policies, etc. Therefore, the above forecast is only a preliminary judgment based on the current market situation and relevant information. The actual shipping demand and prices may vary due to various emergencies.
